Statistical modelling. Neural networks. Computer simulations. We do it all and keep working on new approaches to find the truth in the numbers.
Injuries. Matchups. Trends and Situations. Raw numbers only tell part of the picture. We use classical handicapping tools to get the whole picture for every game.
Our handicapping approaches have consistantly beaten the Vegas line over the last decade. We make all of our results public and let our record speak for itself.
Statstics used to be fairly simple. Things like passing and rushing yardage were used to create power rankings based on handicappers own ideas and gut instincts. It gave the appearance of deeper insights into a matchup between teams but was rarely successful over the long run. With the recent rise of advanced statistics and new approaches using regression models and neural networks we are finally at a point where statistics can provide real and deep insight into a game. Using years of data and millions of simulations we can provide a more accurate betting line than Vegas as a starting point for analyzing a game.
If numbers were always right then there wouldn't be a need to play the games. But games aren't decided on the stats sheet alone. Games are played on the field with two teams and a bunch of zebras, leaving room for human error, emotions and luck. After we have the projected line for a game we look deeper into the human elements of the game accounting for everything from injuries to individual matchups. Combining this human element with the raw numbers allows us to key on the real edges and stay away from the traps.